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Water GenbuTier 2
at RWT Collective - DTR Store Champs
decks
2
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-3-4
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.6%
avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
48.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1349
· median 1349
· range 1216–1482
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1110
Q1 1238
Q3 1465
1593
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -3.5 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.2% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.1% | +6.8 |
